Barack Obama's approval ratings... They don't tell us that much. The most obvious reason is that this an unprecedented period in American history. We are settling into what looks like a long-term period of anemic economic growth. The general population is frustrated, scared, and angry. We all want to see drastic action, and voters on the right and on the left have strong opinions on what needs to be done, but they are totally at odds with each other. Barack Obama, who has played a fairly moderate position economically, has very low approval ratings when it comes to his handling of the economy. What these numbers don't show you, however, is why people disapprove. Some data suggests the more recent polls reflect disappointment on the left with his conciliatory approach to the debt ceiling negotiations. Many of the people saying they disapprove of Obama's handling of the economy will still end up voting for him.
Similarly, when it comes to Obama's overall approval ratings, he's not doing so well. But when we consider that many of the people expressing displeasure with Obama wish he had taken a much more progressive stance, the picture becomes much more complicated. If Obama's approval rating is around 43%, and his disapproval rating is around 50-51%, what part of the 51% wishes he had taken a more progressive stance and will still vote for him if the other option is someone more conservative?
I know this isn't a revelation, but it really bothers me that major news sources report on Obama's struggling poll numbers without mentioning that a candidate doesn't need 50%+ approval ratings to win an election, especially when the other candidates are faring even worse, which is the case with Obama's rivals.
If someone had asked me in a poll whether I approved of Obama or not, I would have said no--even back in 2008. I've never approved of his handling of the economy, because he has never come out to make a strong case for curbing even the worst excesses of the free market. But I still voted for him and will probably do so again, because American politics, with its first past the post elections and two-party system, is extremely cynical: voters do not choose the candidate they love, but the candidate they don't hate. Especially on the left, whose electorate is heavy on minorities and economically struggling people, this cynicism can lead to widespread disaffection and voter apathy. More than anything else, then, I think voter apathy is going to decide the 2012 elections. Given progressive's disheartened mood right now, that is much more cause for worry than Obama's low approval ratings.
The republicans have a strategy of never airing their dirty laundry. If you read Fox News, you'll notice that issues or political events that might create divisions in the party are regularly downplayed or passed over. A large portion of the left is very angry, and a lot of this ire has been heaped on Barack Obama, and very publicly so. While I fully understand the frustrations, I also never expected Barack Obama to be a hardcore progressive, so I'm not disappointed in the least. I'm not particularly enthusiastic about his second term, but I am far more appalled at the obstructionist tactics of the right and their extremely caustic anti-government rhetoric. Like most of the progressives out their, I recognize that Obama is limited by his political circumstances and by his frankly moderate conservative pro-market values, but isn't it obvious that the real danger is the Republicans? Most people out there don't follow the news that well and don't really even know what the GOP has been up to: blocking appointments, using a record number of filibusters, and refusing to compromise at all. I'm not very happy with Obama, but we've got much bigger fish to fry educating the public about how the GOP has been poisoning the political process.
The GOP knows it doesn't have to put forth an actual program, ideas on, for example, what to replace the health care bill with. All they have to do is stoke anger with Barack Obama and assure people that they are the cure-all. Of course this is cynical, but the left has to get more realistic: we don't have to make people love Obama, we just have to make them understand what the GOP is really up to. Tomorrow I'll turn to that topic to talk about government-bashing and why it works so well for the GOP.
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